In a scene where any percentage point more inthe collection of the government or the Gross domestic product (GIP) would be commemoration reason, new twirled of concessions in infrastructure, announced for the government, it will not make miracles, in the evaluation of specialists, but it must have important practical effects on the activity from the year that comes.
The program, that adds R$ 198,4 billion in investments R$ 69,2 billion up to 2018, must add of 0,2 to 0,4 point to the GIP to the year between 2016 and 2018. The concessions in highways only must have a positive contribution of 0,38% of the GIP in the primary surplus of the consolidated public industry in the period of 2015 to 2018 0.04% of the GIP in 2015 and 0,12% of the one in 2016 in the accounts of Pezco Microanalysis brain trust.
“The government had one bleats in the needle in this year, and used today [yesterday], even so not yet either possible knowledge is gone to reach the target”, he says Claudio Frischtak, of Inter. B brain trust. Due to the deadlines for the detailed definition of the projects, of the analysis for the Court of Accounts of União(TCU) and the establishment of rules and proclamations for the works, Frischtak says that it must not have immediate mobilization of resources. “But, if the government to make everything what he is saying that goes to make, and it will have being succeeded itself, is possible to have an investment of the order of R$ 20 billion in the next year, that is equivalent to 0.4% of the GIP”, she says.
Frischtak ponders that, ahead of an expectation of high of 0,5% of the GIP of the year that comes, with the “injection of plus this 0.4%, can have a well significant result, that makes the difference between 0,5% and 1% of growth in 2016 almost”. According to it, still it would be early for speaking in virtuous circle, but, if the government to make reasonably well what he considers to make, this first impulse from 2016 can generate another one in 2017.
For Alessandra Ribeiro, economist of the Trends, taking as starting point the R$ 69,2billion foreseen for the first stage of the program and a used specific multiplying effect for brain trust, the growth of the GIP between 2016 and 2018 will be 0,2 percentage point better than the scene without the program. Thus, the basic scene of brain trust average expansion of the GIP of 1,95% in the period passes to 2,15%.“We believe that the concessions can occur in this year, mainly of some highways with advanced studies, even so the practical effect on activity come only in 2016”, it says.
According to Alessandra, it is important to stand out that the starting point for everything this is a fiscal adjustment well fact, but has come positive signs of the government. “The Levy beat very in the question of reduction of regulatory risk, worried about the signaling in respect to the stability of rules, what sample that are intent to the question”, it says.
In the accounts of the Pezco Brain trust, the drawing presented in bid on 2,579 highways k min 2015 and 4.370 km in 2016, beyond following counting on the model of auction for lesser tariff can have increasing effect on the primary surplus, of 0,04% of the GIP of this year and 0,12% in 2016.
“It is a first estimate and it can be that this impact is bigger, if the state concessions to leave before 2017, as we wait”, Helcio Takedasays, director of research of brain trust. For 2017 and 2018, the impact on the elementary school would be of, respectively, 0.14% and 0.8%.
Brain trust evaluates that, of the announced stretches, what involves the coast of São Paulo was highlighted positively. According to the partner of the Pezco, Frederico Turolla, a good part of offers of highways with great flow of light models already had if depleted, and existed a search of the government for more attractive highways. “It not only obtained, as he made this with musical touches”, Turolla says, in reference to a song of Roberto Carlos.
Specialists had identified effort important of the government to receive some demands of the market, especially in the industry of ports and most complex of them, of railroads. Of these, Antonio Felix de Araújo Cintra, partner of the Tozzini Freire office say that he had a recognition on the part of the government whom the original idea for the package that gave to the state VALEC a central paper did not function.
Already in ports, says Karin Yamauti Hatanaka, partner of the office Souza Cescon, also had important advance, passing of the previous model, where the lesser tariff was valid or the size of the volume carried, to the model current, in which it takes the lease who to offer the biggest agio on it initial minimum price. “The measures seem a great will of the government to make to leave the new bids”, affirms Karin.
“Differently of 2012, the announcement was well organized, necessary and the division between Barbosa, Levy and the president in the presentation was sufficiently intelligent”, said Alberto Zoffmann, director of project finance of Itaú BBA. For Zoffmann, the forecast of R$ 70 billion up to 2018 seems sufficiently realistic and, either even so difficult attractiveness without having greeters’ to argue details in hands, is possible to speak in larger participation of the private industry.
Not everything, however, pleased. Takeda and Turolla, of the Pezco, stand out that the R$129,2 foreseen billion stop after 2019 would be plus a “letter of intentions”, therefore, would involve riskier projects and, therefore, with more difficulty to be leaving the paper. Already Alexandre Santos de Aragão, partner of the Chedia kLawyers, said that without agility of courts and environmental agencies, exactly the foreseen concessions to occur in next the three years will stay in the paper.
Cautious, Fabio Silveira, director of economic research of the GO Associates, say that the reflex on the economy will come in the medium and long run, without “illusions”. For him, it had the hope of that the package could break the contraction, this does not go to occur, but it can, “to the measure that the country will have one retaken of exports, to benefit them in more intense way in 2017”.
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