Pressed by construction companies, the government reduced the growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 3.5% per year to 2.5% per year in calculations of rates and investments of roads and railroads to be auctioned from now on.
Very optimistic estimates led to inflated projections of traffic and revenue, potential concessionaires argued. Thus, the calculations indicated that rates would be sufficient to cover the investment required, but actually they do not.
Moreover, the government has changed the schedule of railroads to be granted. The first stretch to be bid is now the link between entre Lucas do Rio Verde (state of Mato Grosso), in the grain producing region, and Uruaçu (state of Goiás), in an intersection with the North-South Railroad. Originally, the idea was to auction first a branch of the North-South Railroad, from Açailândia (state of Maranhão) to the port of Vila do Conde, district of Barcarena (state of Pará).
Also to meet the interest of the companies, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the first stretch was 8.5%, i.e. the reference ceiling set by the government.
Economic studies of the lot between Açailândia and Barcarena are with the Brazilian Court of Audit (TCU), but the market pointed out problems such as the fact that the railroad will pass through parts of the Amazon rainforest, which carries risks of engineering and environmental permitting. The companies also say that investments for that stretch are underestimated.
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As for the stretch between Lucas do Rio Verde and Uruaçu, which will serve for the handling of soybeans to the North-South Railroad, it is more attractive to investors. It is important to set up the model and make the first bid successfully. We are pursuing exactly that, said Transport Minister César Borges to the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo.
Studies should be delivered to TCU next week and, according to the government’s program, released in late November. The notice to bid should be published between the end of this year and early 2014 and the auction should be conducted in the first quarter of next year.
Another stretch with more advanced feasibility studies and that should be completed still in November is the stretch through Estrela D’Oeste (state of São Paulo), Panorama (state of São Paulo) and Dourados (state of Mato Grosso do Sul). This lot should also have an IRR of 8.5%. Then the documents will be submitted to TCU.
According to Borges, the government has not yet decided whether the auction of this stretch will be performed before or after the auction of the stretch Açailândia-Barcarena. We will evaluate. The one that is more advanced and has more attractive in the market is to be released.
GDP
The government gave up using the growth potential of the country, at 3.5% per year, in its projections and adopted market estimates. We cannot predict the growth of GDP over the next 30 years. That is the GDP that the private sector and the Focus research of Central Bank (BC) give, which is the country’s GDP currently. So it is to be adopted. The highway concessions have a term of 30 years and of railroads, 35 years.
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