The government decided to reformulate the model of public financing for the companies that the construction of the hihg-speed train, a rail line of 511 kilometers that will link São Paulo to Rio.
BNDES, who would fall originally to give a loan of R$ 20 billion, will be a mere repassador of resources. The government (in other words, Treasury) will assume the financing.
The change elapses of two factors. Made the bills, it was verified that BNDES, in spite of the recent contribution of money done by the government in it box, it cannot make an only loan in that value without for in risk the limits of the Agreement of Basileia. That agreement demands a proportion among the capital of the financial institutions and the value of the loans that grant, meditated by their correspondents risks. It is a key indicator of the solidity of the banks all over the world.
An alternative solution would be to fraction the financing, opening space for the participation of private banks. Problem: the private financial section resists a lot in entering not just in the project of the high-speed train, but also in the myriad of opportunities that opens up with projects in the section of energy and with the accomplishment, in Brazil, of the World cup, in 2014 and of the Olympics, in 2016.
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Two weeks ago, BNDES participated in an encounter with eventual investors of Belo Monte hydro-electric power station, that can become the third largest plant of the world.
The bank informed that it gets to finance, in the maximum, R$ 12 billion of the project. And that can only spend more through repassadores. If it can, it will divide the R$ 12 billion with private banks. A banker heard by Folha counts that, world out, they are not the banks that finance great projects in the long period, but the market of capitals (with bonds or actions), that he works with larger periods. But as the funding (resources captured for they be reviewed) of the banks it tends to be of short period in Brazil, it is difficult to do long loans.
The change in the financial modelling of the high-speed train will implicate new delay in the auction of the project. The objective was to throw the announcement in August, with beginning of works foreseen for the second semester of 2010. Now, it is already right that the auction will be long more. And that the inauguration will come after the World Cup. The auction to Belo Monte’s hydro-electric power station can also delay. It is foreseen for December, but it can be postponed for the first trimester of 2010.
Another reason to change the model of financing of the high-speed train is to attract the largest number of consortia interested in the auction, elevating the competition and reducing the portion of the public financing.
In the conventional loans of BNDES, the companies need to offer compatible warranties with the received amount, as well as negotiating safe full for the eventuality of the work not to be ended. The problem is that few consortia are capable to organize warranty systems and of insurance in the amount of R$ 20 billion. When transferring the loan for Treasury, the government creates space for other solutions. One of the ideas is to accept, as warranty, the dear income of the own project to still be built – the same model of hydroelectric power stations already bid by the government. In other words, the warranty would be the tariff hereafter pays for the passengers.
The problem is that, unlike hydroelectric power stations, that produce energy of easy commercialization, no there is certainty of the passengers’ volume that high-speed train will get it to remove of other means of transportation.
Front to the natural risk of this solution, the presence of Treasury offers a protection to BNDES, that will become middleman of resources. With that alternative, in the government’s vision, it will be possible to adapt the contractual demands to the project – that will cost, to the whole, R$ 35 billion, according to the official calculations, and more of R$ 50 billion, in the bills of interested companies.
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