Government bets in the RJ-SP Train

Amid the crisis of the airports, the minister of the Civil House, Dilma Rousseff, decided to engage personally to promote a project of US$ 9 billion, dreamed by the inhabitants of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro: the construction of a high-speed train to link the two larger cities of the country. In an official visit to Italy,  Dilma included in her calendar meetings in the European Bank of Investments (BEI, with headquarters in Rome) and with Italian entrepreneurs interested in building the 403 kilometers of the bullet train.

As it can be imagined in an enterprise that big, all of the numbers are superlative. There will be 134 kilometers of tunnels – 33% of the whole line — in order to allow a course without many ascents and descents -, 105 kilometers of bridges and viaducts, and a commercial speed of 285 km/h. The forecast is that the trip will take 1:25 hour, with a tariff of US$ 60 and trains leaving every 15 minutes in peak time, carrying up to 855 passengers.

One more “paper work”? Just a dream?

José Francisco das Naves, CEO of Vale, state-owned company linked to the Ministry of the Transports that developed the project, guarantees that it is not. The basic and executive projects – the first two steps in an infrastructure enterprise – are ready, he says. Soon it will also be concluded the study of environmental impact. Little by little, several interested parties began to appear: the Italian group Impregillo, a pool of Brazilian contractors – Odebrecht, Andrade Gutierrez and Camargo Corrêa -, the French Alstom and the Korean consortium Korean Train Express.

The project should be 100% private. Neves believes that the bullet train can be bid at the end of this year or in the beginning of next year. Minister Dilma liked the idea and signaled  that she intends to put the project among the works of the Program of Acceleration of the Growth (PAC). However, she wants to be surrounded with warranties. For instance, not to transform the project in a “white elephant”, much less to hear the investors´ requests, in the future, for state participation because the works are being too expensive. 

At the same time, Dilma intends to make clear to the private investors and to the banks disposed to finance the project – BEI, BNDES, BID and BNP Paribas, among other – that the Brazilian government decided to move ahead with the project. According to Neves,  in spite of the cost of US$ 9 billion, the private group that wins the bid will operate a concession during 35 years that only begin to count after the conclusion of the works. 

The return will come starting from the 11th year of operation, according to the economical-financial viability studies. However, many can consider them doubtful. In the studies, it is foreseen that the train will transport 32.5 million passengers in the first year of operation. That means exactly 50% of the whole flow of people that travel in the itinerary Rio-São Paulo annually – according to 2006 figures, 60.2 million people traveled by car, 3.3 million by plane and 1.3 million passengers by bus. 

According to sources of the rail industry, the costs of operation of passenger trains (high-speed or not) are so high that the business only has sustainability with state subsidies. There is also the environmental obstacle: a good part of the itinerary involves works in the Atlantic forest, demanding delicate analysis of Ibama.

Published in 05/28/2007.

Fonte: Valor Econômico