In a country like Brazil, which still has an unbalanced transport matrix and a railroad network which is nowhere near the level of other countries of a similar size to Brazil, the task of making a summary of the situation and also forecast expectations for this industry could be a difficult one, but 2011 suggests a different scenario. Even though it is still strangled by the logistics bottlenecks that block freight transport, and also the serious mobility problems in Brazil’s large cities, the fact is that apparently Brazil has just awoken to the need to speed up the expansion of the country’s railroad network. The prospects for growth of this segment, especially with regard to freight transport and the industry itself, are the best possible.
In the opinion of the director of the Interstate Trade Union of the Industry of Materials and Equipment for Railroads and Roads (Simefre), Massimo Giavina Bianchi, “the new regulatory milestone of the railroad segment will allow this industry to be given greater flexibility (with passage rights) not only for the concessionaire, but also the future operators who will be able to use the railroad network and also the users, with their own fleet for the transport of the products. The result of all this will be, without any doubt, the reduction of the fares which are now out of proportion when compared with road freight costs”, he says.
Also according to Mr. Bianchi, “with the concession of the railroad networks, the industry has begun a virtuous circle that has slowly turned into reliability and regularity for railroad users, generating a revival of the industry to the extent that soon, with the new railroad benchmark, there will be an increase in the supply of new railroad equipment”.
In the opinion of the Executive Director of the National Association of Railroad Transporters (Associação Nacional dos Transportadores Ferroviários – ANTF), Rodrigo Vilaça, who recently participated in the trade fair and seminar by the name of Business on Rails (Negócios nos Trilhos) in São Paulo, Brazil, “it is necessary to expand the railroad network in Brazil in a manner that is integrated with the other means of transport, considering all the regions of the Country”.
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Mr. Vilaça well knows that, in large countries like Canada, the United States and Australia, more than 43% of freight is transported by rail, while in Russia this proportion is 81% and in China, so far, 37%. In Brazil, the participation of railroad transport is only 25%, which is already an improvement, considering that a few years ago it stood at 17%.
“Our current rate of economic growth requires that the country has a total of 52 thousand kilometers of track, which is much more than the current 28 thousand kilometers operated by the rail transport concessionaires”, stresses the ANTF executive.
Benchmark – The Government is already working on the creation of a new regulatory benchmark for the rail segment – which should already be in place, but which, in order to involve and hear all the players, has not had the changes announced, and may even be delayed until after the inauguration of the newly elected Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff.
The proposal marks a separation of roles, with the creation of two different figures: the manager of the rail network, on one side, and the rail operators on the other. The manager will be the party responsible for the construction and administration of the new railroads. For the operators, there will be the responsibility to buy transport capacity so that their freights may be freely transported, which expands the fields of activity of the current rail concessionaires and also allows the arrival of new players to this market – this being a point which divides opinions, as not everyone wants to “buy capacity”.
The Vice-President for Rail Transport of the Brazilian Chamber for Containers, Rail and Multimodal Transport (Câmara Brasileira de Contêineres, Transporte Ferroviário e Multimodal – CBC), Washington Soares, agrees that the project which is currently being analyzed by the Chief of Staff, if approved, may produce better competitivity in the rail transport segment. “The change in the passage rights for trains, in railroads controlled by the Government, could encourage competition in routes where there is no investment interest on the part of the shareholders of the current rail concessions”, he remembers.
Mr. Soares gives an example by saying that: “The rail operator may operationalize, with new rail operators, a track route under sections of concession. This will introduce other freight niches, even if that object of analysis for new transport projects is not interesting for the rail concessionaire or in cases in which the company does not wish to share the rolling stock or track resources”. In his opinion, in the current model for rail privatization, there is an innate operational monopoly, with the own established demand of the railroad.
In the opinion of Simefre, after decades of neglect and lack of prospects, the national rail transport industry is now going through a period of euphoria, with prospects of investments of more than US$ 44.74 billion over the next few years.
The consequences of new times can already be felt by the producers of railroad equipment, in the results for 2010. The coach-producing industry, for example, will more than triple the volume of 2009.
“We will start the year with a forecast of producing 2,50 coaches, but – at this moment – we expect to close the year with some 3.3 thousand coaches produced and delivered to the market. This volume is highly significant if we consider that, in 2009, we traded only 1,022 coaches due to the international crisis”, says the Vice-President of Simefre, Luiz Fernando Ferrari.
He feels some factors have had a positive impact on the freight rail transport segment in 2010. These include the Investment Sustenance Plan (Programa de Sustentação do Investimento – PSI) of the Brazilian Development Bank (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social – BNDES), launched in the middle of 2009 because of the financial crisis, and extended to 31 March 2011, which has boosted sales of coaches and also of locomotives. “We have also see a good recovery of the external markets for ore, grain and sugar, especially”, he adds.
Export – Due to the international crisis, exports should come to only 16 coaches compared with 32 units exported in 2009. The low rate of the American Dollar against the Brazilian Real has harmed the competitivity of the Brazilian rail supplies business which also suffers, like other business segments, the negative effects of the high tax burden. On the other hand, the businesspeople of this area are vulnerable to imports, especially in the case of vehicles for passenger rail transport. “As an example, we could mention the Chinese trains that have been
acquired by the Rio de Janeiro Metro and also by Supervia”, Mr. Ferrari points out.Passenger Segment – The industry for coaches is closing the year as forecast at the end of 2009. Of course there is some variation, with projects entering production and also being completed, but the segment is operating normally.
In 2010, the segment should produce 421 coaches, of which 41 should be exported. This performance is a bit below that of last year, when 434 were produced and 374 exported. Nowadays, the industry has reached a better balance between internal requests and exports, but at this moment the national market stands out, in the last year having made significant investments in passenger transport by rail.
The businesspeople of this segment are confident in relation to the next few years, based on the declarations made by the Minister for Cities, Márcio Fortes, during the National Meeting of the Rail Industry and Operators (Encontrem 2010). At that time, the Minister said
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