The ethanol sectors, mining companies and steel mills will invest less from 2013 to 2016, while the contributions in logistics infrastructure, such as roads, railroads, ports and airports, should grow and promote the total investment in the economy, says the latest mapping of projects done by the Brazilian Development Bank (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social – BNDES) for four-year cycles.
After noting a fall in the industry investment in 2012, the study again indicated a positive scenario. The investment cycle from 2013 to 2016 has a project portfolio of $1.946 trillion, 29% above the cycle from 2008 to 2011. The BNDES mapping is done since 2006 and updated every year.
The bank’s economists made the comparison between the 2008-2011 and 2013-2016 cycles, removing the year 2012 from the analysis, in order to not mix investment made with projected investment, according to Fernando Puga, superintendent of research area – the numbers of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for last year are not yet complete.
Puga said 2012 was an unusual year for investments.
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Since the third quarter of 2011, total of contributions has fallen successively, but the fall over the last year has been left out of the BNDES’ comparison. Last year, the review of the bank’s mapping – covering only industry investment in the 2012-2015 cycle – recorded an amount 6% smaller than the projection for the 2011-2014 period.
The year 2013 is getting much better, Puga stated. According to the economist, the investment rate goes to 20% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – in the third quarter, it stood at 18.7%, according to IBGE.
The CEO of BNDES, Luciano Coutinho, has repeated since the beginning of the year that projects mapped by the bank point to a high of 5% to 5.5% on investments in 2013. The information is from the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo.
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