HST is a threat to Rio-SP airlift, say specialists

The high speed train (HST) is expected to begin its operation by the end of the decade in a very sensitive sector for airline companies and, at first, it shall be a profit reduction factor for airline companies. The Rio-São Paulo airlift will be threatened as soon as HST begins the regular transport of passengers in the route, state specialists consulted by Broadcast, real time service of the Agência Estado.

For airline companies, there’s enough demand for both modals and the HDS may even trigger the growth, by feeding the country’s main cities’ airports with passengers. Rio-São Paulo airlift is the third most moved in the planet, according to study of Amadeus, a global technology company of commercial transactions for tourism agencies. In 2012, it has moved 7.7 million passengers, only behind the sections of Sapporo-Tokyo (Japan) and Jeju-Seul (South Korea).

The last data provided by the National Civil Aviation Agency (Anac) show that the airlift has registered in March 3,651 flights by TAM, Gol, Azul and Avianca, a number equivalent to the month average, on 121 daily operations. It is in this market that the Brazilian high speed train will get in 2020, government’s expected date. Where the high speed train managed to get in, it destroyed the airlifts, said Hélio Mauro França, director of Empresa de Planejamento e Logística (EPL).

Data from the International Union of Railways (UIC) show that the high speed train managed to embrace 45.6% of the market in the Madrid-Barcelona section in 2011, three years after getting in operations in this section, one of the continent’s busiest sections. The same occurred in Osaka and Tokyo (Japan), Colony and Frankfurt (German) and Paris and Lyon (France).

The trend, due to the high speed train’s comfort, punctuality and safety, is that the airlift is gone, said França. In addition, airports are poorly connected.

A research from the Civil Aviation Department (Secretaria de Aviação Civil – SAC) from January to March with 21.2 thousand passengers show that most people that travel in airplanes in the country arrive at the airport on private vehicles, and even of who chooses for public transportation, two in each three use taxis.

Airlines. The CEO of Brazilian Airline Companies Association (Abear), Eduardo Sanovicz, understands that the loss will occur in the first moment, when passengers will test the new option, but in short term, HST and airlines will manage to obtain enough passengers for both to coexist. At first, we are not facing the high speed train as a competitor.

Yet, Strategy professor of Fundação Dom Cabral, Paulo Vicente, treats the HST as a replacement for airlift. The Brazilian high speed train may not finish up with airlifts right away, but in long term, it leads this way.

However, for that to occur, HST must be efficient and punctual and it must have competitive prices – the invitation to bid for the first high speed train auction, which will choose the system operator, estimated de price in $ 0.24 per kilometer, which leads to around $ 100 in economy class.

The government has tried to bid the high speed train in 2011. For being too expensive – it is estimated in $ 17.5 billion – and offering increased risks for the investor in relation to offered return rates, the auction failed with lack of interest. The federal government, then, decided to split the project in two phases. On the first phase, which auction will be in September, the HST operator will be chosen and, in a later moment, it will hire infrastructure works.