The investors achieved, at least, two claims to dispute the High Speed Train (HST), between Rio and Sao Paulo. On the three main appointed risks, the federal government will afford two: the demand and the environment. The building risk will be the winning consortium responsibility, says the director of the Agencia Nacional dos Transportes Terrestres (ANTT), Bernardo Figueiredo. According to him, these guidelines will appear in the pre-announcement, which will enter into public consultation on December 18.
Although it is a preliminary document, investors await the publication of the document to start defining the consortiums and build business strategies for the dispute auction of the HST, which will cost about US$ 19 bn. Because it is a very big investment, the private sector believes that the three risks determinate the feasibility of the business, or its failure. Figueiredo says that in the case of demand, the government can stretch up to ten years the amortization of the loan, which will be within 30 years. That is, if demand does not meet the numbers set out in the studies, the government will extend the loan payment to the maximum period of the concession contract, which will be 40 years.
In the environmental case, the government will afford the financial risk and release licenses prior to installation and operation. Figueiredo says there will be a government budget to fund environmental costs. In the case of construction risk, investors want the government’s subsidy even with the geological risks. This is a risk of the investor. What we do is give more time before submitting their bids, so that interested parties make all the necessary studies to raise the project and mitigate risk. They will have five months from the announcement.”, said Figueiredo.
The consortium will have flexibility to change the route of the HST. Until now, five major groups dispute the study design, including Spanish, Korean, Chinese, French and German. Spain’s CAF, for example, has begun talking with possible partners, but the company awaits the announcement to define partnerships. We do not know all the rules. But the government has demonstrated good faith to take the project forward, says Paulo Fontenele, CEO of the Spanish company, which will open its first factory in Brazil in January. He said the government’s decision to release up to 60% the funding from the Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES) for the project is great news, which tends to facilitate the financial modeling of the HST.
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