The year 2014 was an unusual year due to the hosting of the FIFA World Cup and the elections in the country, events that somehow affected the activities of the industry. Still, the rail industry has performed beyond expectations.
Cargo – According to Vicente Abate, president of ABIFER and director of SIMEFRE, the volumes of cargo cars exceeded the most optimistic forecasts. Until October 4,067 cars were delivered and it is expected to close the year at 4,500 cars against the forecast of 3,500, which is an increase of 28%. Compared to 2013, the volume nearly doubled, with a very low comparison basis of 2,280 cars.
In terms of locomotives, the performance was above the expected, yet with a very low volume still. Until October 52 locomotives were delivered, with an expected total of 80 in the year, 33% above the forecast of 60 locomotives. Comparing to 2013 (83 locomotives), the volume was maintained.
Passengers – The passenger car market was also positive, explains Vice President of SIMEFRE Luiz Fernando Ferrari. 320 cars were delivered until October, expected to end the year at 394, exceeding by 23% the forecast of 320 cars for 2014. Compared to 2013, the increase will be 80% related to the volume of 219 cars.
Wayside – The Wayside materials sector had a strong supply year due to government procurement for cargo railways, as well as Vale’s investments in Carajás E.F. (track renovation and duplication) and the renovation of tracks in the EFVM, VLI and MRS, whose volumes will be maintained in 2015.
Services – The industry continues to perform repair and modernization services in wagons, locomotives and passenger cars, especially a volume of 102 modernized cars delivered to CMSP (São Paulo Metro Company) as part of the modernization program of the old fleet on Lines 1 and 3, which will continue at the same pace in 2015.
Exports – Exports of cars and locomotives in 2014 remained at very low volumes, with 10 cars (1 car in 2013) and 3 locomotives (13 locomotives in 2013). On the other hand, passenger car exports grew to 60 cars, compared to 20 in 2013. Manufacturers of wheels, retaining clamps, and truck and coupler cast parts have exported high volumes in 2014.
Investments and Revenues
According to SIMEFRE directors, the Brazilian rail industry continues to invest heavily in its entire production chain, both in high-tech applications and training its workforce, as in the expansion and modernization of its factories and building of new ones. The investments planned for 2014/2016 are between R$400 and R$600 million (BRL). The technological innovation contained in all of its products has contributed to increase the productivity and competitiveness of its customers.
“We hope to close 2014 with a total revenue of approximately R$5.6 billion (BRL), with a 24% increase compared to 2013, which closed at R$4.5 billion. Additional volumes of vehicles delivered were responsible for a growth higher than expected”, says Abate.
Incentives
The government maintained the incentives already granted earlier, such as Payroll Exemption, the PSI from BNDES and REINTEGRA. However, it is not expected to maintain funding in such competitive conditions in 2015. In the cargo sector, the Federal Government is expected to implement the Cars and Locomotives Fleet Renewal Program, which will give sustainability to the manufacturers of these vehicles over the next ten years.
Regarding the domestic industry competitive edge, it is important that the industry has tax equality in relation to foreign industry, in any country, explains Ferrari. “The rail industry installed in Brazil is competitive. However, there are other variables that have to be taken into account, such as the excessive appreciation of the Real and the instability in the currency exchange fluctuation”.
He explains that the country needs to increase its productivity, which depends partly on the industry itself, and it is already working on it. It also involves other issues such as improvements in transport infrastructure and excessive bureaucracy.
2015
The estimates of high investment made by rail cargo concessionaires, as well as government efforts to improve urban mobility, remain the focus for the coming years, although it is expected a year of changes in 2015, especially in the economic area.
The rail industry believes in the positive results of these changes and remains optimistic, ensures Vicente Abate. “This way and for 2015 we estimate the production and delivery of about 4,000 cars (75 for export), 90 locomotives (10 for export) and 420 passenger cars (90 for export), leading to slightly higher revenues than 2014”.
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